Why I don’t follow much political news and the dangers of following an ideology

It was December 2019. A new law came and the whole nation of India went berserk. Nation was like two poles of a magnet, constantly clashing with each other on their views. News channels rejoiced as they sensed more viewership to damage the brain cells of the audience. My friends debated heavily on that issue. Even my family wasn’t immune. Still, I couldn’t be bothered. I didn’t know what the issue was about and didn’t even care to. A few years ago, I would be the kind of guy having a strong opinion and reading editorials about the topic. But that guy is long dead.

People often get extremely defensive and angry when defending their political views. A common saying is ‘When anger comes, reason leaves’. This is about as true as I know. Liberal often hate conservatives and vice versa.  

I do wish sometimes that I didn’t spend much time arguing about politics and reading political news. It often gives the illusion that your views are important for the country.  

The land of no change

In my life, I have found that changing people’s opinions is probably one of the hardest things to do. Much harder than convincing my school teacher that my dog ate my homework. And why it shouldn’t be? Most opinions are formed over many years such that they have become a part of their default psychology. They are constantly reconfirmed by usually cherry-picking facts and incidences to confirm the view.

It’s lunacy to think that someone will change their views after a couple of hours of discussion to a perspective they have spent a lifetime defending it. Just remember last time you yielded your point of view humbly after a discussion with someone else. If its hard for you to do, guess how hard it would be for someone else. For everyone wants to change other people but no one wants to be changed themselves. To my astonishment, I usually found out that I was almost as stubborn to change as the people I had despised.

For a believer, no amount of evidence is enough as one can often distort the facts in a way to suit his/her desired narrative. Just remember every time a new discovery came and believers of certain religions just claimed to know that they already knew it. No, they didn’t know it yet were able to convince themselves that they always knew it. Most of us are like that, only a few are aware.

The misinformed smart

I have a friend. He hates the political party in power so much that I have not seen him supporting even a single decision of theirs. Not even one decision out of thousands. It is just so improbable that even a single decision out of that big a lot has no merit. He has a great distrust of anything that comes from the government’s mouth and will attack it regardless. In his opinion, everything the current party does is to help their industrialist friends and would go to great lengths to defend his view. Don’t get me wrong, the guy I am talking about is smart and I really admire him for his unique thinking. But smart people aren’t immune to being manipulated and biased. Having a consistent ideology usually makes one blind.

Here is the thing about ideology, no matter how smart you are, It robs you of your intellectual freedom and skepticism. It becomes a habit, like cigarette smoking but much worse. People smoking cigarettes know that it’s bad for their health and it is likely to cause certain mutations and if unlucky, can lead to a much more increased risk of cancer. Yet people do it for the fun of it or to help them deal with stress or whatever. But having an ideology shows no such signs of retardation and it does drastically affect your thinking.

Similarly, I know someone from college, who was in my debating society. Contrary to my friend, he loves the current party in power. Any fake news showcasing the prime minister in a good light will be believed and circulated on social media. And he would always trick his mind into believing that there was propaganda at work if news like GDP slowdown or unemployment figures increase. He was so good at tricking his mind into believing what he wants that it was almost fascinating to see.

Biases and Conspiracies

Both of the people I know are victims of narrative fallacy. Human beings are much better at explaining things rather than understanding them. This tendency makes the truth take a backseat. Given an outcome, we can fit any precise and fitting explanation that conforms with our own views. And we usually don’t think in terms of probabilities in real life. It is usually white or black for most people. That is why it has been extremely hard to argue with some people over subjective matters as they usually confuse a desired event having low probability with absolute certainty of its occurrence. Just because something is possible doesn’t make it more probable. No one goes to a casino thinking they are going to lose money when the chances of making money from there are never greater than 50%. And payoffs in case of winning are never greater than 2X. Yet most of the people go into a casino with an optimistic grin on their face thinking they are going to print cash and put the casino out of business. The 50% chance of winning in their head is misrepresented as absolute certainty of making money. Just because one wants to make money does not make it more probable for you to make money. Yet they try their luck and casinos do love suckers and often oblige them with free drinks.

In my life, almost everyone I have met who is obsessed with politics has turned out to be a nutcase. Reading political news in reality will make you more ill-informed than being oblivious and watching your dog hopelessly catch its tail instead. A common phenomenon you can observe right now is that politics all over the world is much more polarized than ever before. Be it the USA, Europe, or India. It may be because of other factors but something else is at play too at a large extent – Confirmation Bias. In this age, we are bombarded with information from all corners by journalists whose faces often suggest that they suffer from certain severe chronic digestive problems. It is very easy to read and find articles confirming your view. It has become much more easier to find people having similar views. The more time you spend online discussing politics, the more your mind will be closed to new perspectives. The more easily manipulated you can become. The element of doubt in your own views that one gets from introspection by being in solitude has decreased drastically.

That is why fake news or conspiracy theories are really popular these days. It is really easy to believe any crap if a whole bunch of people are already believing it. Give a half lunatic some fake/half true information and couple it with social proof and confirmation bias, and I will show you one complete nutcase.

The Amnesic Voter

Every politician is afraid to lose power because that’s his job. So, they make popular decisions(usually). And the public usually doesn’t know what is needed to be done(No one does actually) and yet everyone walks about the town like an expert on every issue.

I suspect every politician knows this fact. That their voters have a really short-term memory. They will easily forget the promises politicians make after a few months (I would argue that making many promises is bad for political processes and nations but that’s for another day). I can’t even blame them for being easily manipulated and forgetful. Most people are too busy with their own lives as they have to earn a living, take out their mortgages, play second fiddle to your senior at the job, listen to their child cry, fight with their spouse, etc to even keep a scorecard of the promises the local politician makes. Most politicians aren’t able to keep up with their promises after coming to power. And they don’t need to. They only need to make new ones to get to that chair. That wall didn’t get built. The money from the Swiss banks didn’t come. God help me if they deliver a little of what they promised, they will boast it on every billboard in the city till your eyes bleed. And the politician who will fulfil your promises will not appear to save you. Get out of your wonderland, Alice.

I disagree with common wisdom that one should care deeply about politics. We should care but as little as possible. Politicians often take outrageous decisions because people care too much. They now have to satisfy lunatic demands of the masses to stay on the chair. If one cares very deeply, all of history shows that crowds can get political honchos to do really stupid things.

Screw being informed

I don’t care much about most news (especially political) these days as it does not bring any material change in my life. I don’t get much benefit from being informed and there is opportunity cost of time which can be spent doing something else.

Learning over timeless topics such as philosophy, history, math, science, investing, human behavior, and heuristics, etc will help you develop better-thinking models you can apply to your own life. They will be relevant till your last breath. Politics is the exact opposite of that. You don’t learn anything which will be relevant after a few years. And you don’t remember most of it because most of it is actually useless. Most of the stuff you read in the morning will go down the flush in your next loo break. Due to the nature of power, political events are chaotic and analysis paralysis is the curse of the supposed genius who tries to find a signal among the noise. I prefer to be improved over-informed any day.

Confucius once said, “We have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we only have one”. Our time on earth is limited. There is only so much time to do stuff we would want and explore life. People spend hours following politics and watching TV debates. And it doesn’t help. Neither you nor the nation. Most of your political thinking and discussion go to waste. There are so many things one can do in life to make it fun instead. Discussing politics for hours is not one of them. At least for me.

Low influence

I don’t mean to suggest that economic or government policies don’t play a part or one should not care at all. The economic destruction in Zimbabwe or Venezuela are examples of the misery that can be caused by insecure morons who were very afraid to lose power. Similarly, one can argue that the huge difference in economic growth between China and India can be boiled down to government intervention to a large extent. But the fact of the matter is that people in the countries mentioned above cared too much about politics, such that the government had to tilt their policies in their favor. The public demanded free money cheques from the government and the government obliged in Venezuela. It not only ended up in economic misery but created an un-admirable work culture in that country. Free money is like cocaine, difficult to get off once you get hooked on it. Similarly, in India, the voters often cared too much about casteist and religious policies such that elections always revolved around them. If they had cared less and worked on their own economic growth, government policies would have come to support them and it would have been better in the long term. But long-term thinking is the curse of the wise and not the half-wits.

Extreme Events

In the case of a rare event, if something extreme happens then it will reach your ears regardless. Coronavirus damaged the world and it reached my ears regardless. And so, does some war that happens on the border of the country. And the new tax which you despise and find ways to get around it. Or some financial incentive the government gives or takes away to certain industries in a certain area. All such news reaches your ears regardless of where you look. But remember, if you are not in a powerful position, the impact you have is extremely limited.

The partially useful heuristic

Every election year, one can see the extremely boring ads on television or other digital media where they tell people about their responsibility to exercise their right to vote. And I agree to a large extent that one should vote. My only problem is that I don’t like being entangled in the noise of political discussions. So, I have devised a simple heuristic to vote. If the government has made the lives of me and my contemporaries a lot easier and better in the past few years without causing major macro blowoffs or some other collapse on a national level. Then it may be a suitable candidate for my vote. If they have made it worse, then someone else needs to sit on that chair. In short words, just look around and you will know whether things have changed for the better or worse.

“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

When you ask someone for a stock tip. You don’t ask what he thinks, you ask what he owns. Similarly, you shouldn’t care what a politician says, you should see what he has done. And you can know that by ignoring most TV channels and newspapers. You only have to look around and see the change. It’s far more efficient and a lot less time-consuming. This is far from perfect, but its not a bad way either.

My final thoughts

Not caring much about politics is often not well received in any society. Regardless, I often try to spend as minimal as time as I can reading about it. Political views(or any view) are often laden with confirmation bias, misinformation, and lack of perspective. Plus, there is a dilemma of staying consistent with your views if you have gone public with them (Read consistency principle in the book ‘Influence’ by Robert Cialdini).

I wrote this useless article not because I want someone to be a liberal or conservative (both sides seem nutcases to me these days), but only because to remind me for being a skeptic and dangers of following any particular ideology to the heart. It is also there to remind me that besides extremely rare situations, being vocal about politics is usually useless.

People often spend their whole lives trying to defend an ideology they haven’t spent even a couple of hours skeptically enquiring it. Worse, many are ready to die for an ideology they don’t completely understand. There are so many biases and incentives at play in your tiny little brain that the narrative gets changed quickly to suit your belief. That is why I am wary of having a permanent ideology. There is absolutely no room for one to be a skeptic. In a society that degrades people for not being consistent with your own views, true freedom is destroying your best-loved ideas and beliefs, or as I call it ‘Unlearn and learn again’.

I have met tonnes of people in my life who throw judgments more quickly than the speed of light (Sometimes I am guilty of that too, especially in public or among friends). And since the past few years, I have consistently tried hard to suspend my judgments and correct my earlier judgments if I was wrong.

The most liberating opinion I have ever encountered in my life is, that it is absolutely fine if you get it wrong. And often I can be wrong. And this awareness brings great humility, gratitude and throws a big chunk of ego out of the window. And that helps me change my most loved opinions and beliefs as quickly as water changes its shape even though I am very stubborn by nature.  

The greatest thing one can do to help the nation is to start a business or help other people. Taking a risk and employing people to help them earn a livelihood is a much more virtuous thing than to mindlessly discuss politics and blame politicians for misery in your country.

Arguing, reading, and theorizing about politics can be rarely useful and I keep it extremely limited. There is something lot more important at stake here other than the opportunity cost to do something more valuable and fun i.e. Time. And it is the only thing I can never get back no matter I own gazillions of dollars.